Election 2016: Markets right now: US bond yields rise after Trump win

A TV screen shows U.S. President Barack Obama, left, and President-elect Donald Trump under a ticker screen showing falling stocks in red, at the Athens' Stock Exchange on Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2016. European stock markets and Wall Street futures have trimmed a chunk of their early losses after a relatively soft victory speech from Trump. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis)
A TV screen shows U.S. President Barack Obama, left, and President-elect Donald Trump under a ticker screen showing falling stocks in red, at the Athens' Stock Exchange on Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2016. European stock markets and Wall Street futures have trimmed a chunk of their early losses after a relatively soft victory speech from Trump. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis)

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) – The latest on financial markets following the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States (All times local):

2:55 p.m. – U.S. bond yields have risen strongly in the wake of Trump’s victory, a sign that investors think the outlook for the U.S. economy remains positive.

The yield, or interest rate, on the U.S.’s ten-year bonds is up 0.08 percentage point at 1.948 percent. That has helped the dollar recover its poise following earlier losses when Trump’s victory became increasingly likely. The euro, for example, is now basically flat on the day at $1.1025.

Kathleen Brooks, a research director at City Index in London, thinks the rise in the yield may represent some optimism over the U.S. economic outlook given Republican control of both the White House and Congress. That clarity in government, she said, could aid growth.

However, she warns that there could be problems ahead if yields continue to rise over the coming days and weeks. If they do, she says “concern may grow that bonds are selling off due to fears of America’s creditworthiness under a President Trump.”

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2:30 p.m. – Investors are bracing for a rough day for some health care stocks after the Republican victories in Tuesday’s elections.

Mizuho Securities analyst Sheryl Skolnick says the Trump win and looming GOP control of Congress represent a worst-possible outcome for health care stocks. She says that a repeal of the Affordable Care Act, something Trump has promised, would take away the expansion in several states of the government’s Medicaid program for the poor, and that expansion helped both hospital and health insurance stocks.

Skolnick lowered her rating on several stocks, including the nation’s hospital chain HCA Inc. and the largest health insurer, UnitedHealth Group Inc., to “neutral” from “buy.”

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1:40 p.m. – For financial markets, Trump’s victory is the latest manifestation of a backlash against globalization.

Christopher Mahon, Director of Asset Allocation Research at Barings, says Trump’s victory is an example of people believing that inequalities in society are a result of globalization. That belief, he says, was behind the unrest in Greece during that country’s debt crisis over the past few years as well as Britain’s vote in June to leave the European Union.

Mahon says “globalization and the liberal economic consensus is in full retreat” if Trump doesn’t temper his views.

He says it “is clear that this next president will have a profound effect on global markets.”

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12:50 p.m. – With less than three hours before Wall Street opens for business following Trump’s victory, the mood in financial markets remains sanguine, especially when compared to the initial impact of his stunning win.

When it became apparent that Trump was surging to victory following a run of triumphs in key swing states, predictions about the open on Wall Street were extremely negative. The Dow was forecast to open some 800 points lower.

But following a fairly conciliatory victory speech by the president-elect, the Dow is now anticipated to open down 360 points, or 2 percent.

Connor Campbell, a trader at Spreadex, says “a surprisingly ‘presidential’ Trump victory speech …. seems to have reassured investors .”

Losses have been similarly trimmed in European markets. Germany’s DAX, for example, is only 1.5 percent lower at 10,330 while Britain’s FTSE 100 index is down 0.6 percent at 6,802.

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12:00 p.m. – Germany’s main business lobby group is calling for President-elect Donald Trump to refrain from isolating the U.S. and warning of a negative impact on the global economy if uncertainty persists.

The head of the Federation of German Industries, Ulrich Grillo, said Wednesday that the U.S. must continue to back open markets because “anything else would be poison for the U.S. economy.”

Grillo said in a statement: “The uncertainty in the economy is huge. Donald Trump would be well advised not to seal off the U.S. economy from the world. Otherwise, the lack of clarity about the future course will lead to significant negative effects for the world economy.”

The United States was the single biggest trading partner last year for Germany, which has Europe’s biggest economy.

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11:40 p.m. – One reason stock markets have rallied off earlier lows is an anticipated boost from U.S. fiscal policy when President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House in January.

Trump and Congressional Republicans, who won both the House of Representatives and the Senate, have indicated a desire to push through large tax cuts, enact corporate tax reforms and spend on infrastructure projects.

Standard Life Investments has advised its clients that the medium-term implications for markets depend on the actual policies of President Trump and what can be negotiated through Congress.

It said Wednesday: “The direction of the dollar will be influenced by a number of forces in the medium-term, including whether fiscal policy is loosened and a repatriation tax is implemented, as well as the shape of trade arrangements.”

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11:20 a.m. – The Russian ruble is stable while the country’s stocks are on the rise after U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump’s victory speech.

The ruble had been down in early trading but is now trading at around 63.8 rubles to the dollar and near to yesterday’s close.

Moscow-based Sberbank analyst Tom Levinson says the ruble has proved among the “most resilient” of world currencies in part due to expectations for “greater communication on the political level” between the U.S. and Russia, as well as Russia’s lack of dependence on non-energy exports.

It’s been a similar regarding Russian stocks. The Moscow exchange’s main MICEX index had been down 1.4 percent in early trading, but swiftly recovered its losses and was trading up 1.6 percent at 1.p.m local time.

One of the main drivers of growth for the MICEX is gold and silver producer Polymetal, which was up almost 5 percent. Demand is strong worldwide for precious metals, a traditional safe haven for investors.

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10:05 a.m. – European stock markets and Wall Street futures have trimmed a chunk of their early losses after a relatively soft victory speech from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Germany’s DAX is down 2 percent at 10,267 while the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares is 1 percent lower at 6,773.

U.S. stocks are also expected to open lower too, though by far less than earlier predictions. Dow futures are 1.6 percent lower at 17,996 while the broader S&P 500 futures are down 2 percent at 2,094.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com, says Trump “definitely sounded more presidential than he has done at any stage during the election campaign” during his victory speech, in which he praised Hillary Clinton.

Brooks says the speech has helped soothe stressed markets.

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9:35 a.m. – As stock markets around the world take a tumble following the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States, investments traditionally viewed as safe havens are getting a lift.

Gold is up 1.8 percent at $1,297 an ounce, while the Swiss franc has risen against the dollar, which is down 0.7 percent at 0.9725 Swiss francs. The Japanese yen has also been heavily in demand, with the dollar down 1.9 percent at 103.17 yen.

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9:15 a.m. – European markets have opened lower after Donald Trump was elected president of the United States.

The Stoxx Europe 600 index was down 2.2 percent, while Germany’s main DAX index opened 2.9 percent lower. The euro was 0.6 percent higher at $1.1092 as the dollar dropped across the board.

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, said markets faced “chaos and turmoil” in coming days because of uncertainty about what economic program Trump would follow. Germany, for instance, depends heavily on global trade, while Trump has spoken out against trade treaties.

Brzeski said global market turmoil could be worse than that which followed the British vote to leave the European Union due to the bigger role the U.S. plays in the global economy.

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5:30 a.m. – Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 has briefly plunged more than 6.1 percent as investors react to the prospect of a Trump presidency.

By late in Tokyo’s trading session, the Nikkei was down 5.2 percent, after the Kyodo News agency reported that top officials from the Bank of Japan, Finance Ministry and Financial Services Agency would meet later in the day to discuss how to respond to possible wild fluctuations in financial markets.

Japanese shares tend to gain when the yen weakens, since that can help manufacturers when they bring back profits from overseas. On Wednesday, the dollar had dropped 3.2 percent to 101.58 yen from a high of 105.46 earlier in the day.

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4:00 a.m. – Investors are unloading shares as prospects for a Trump presidency appear to be rising. Dow futures have tumbled 3.5 percent or 643.00 points to 17,647.00 and S&P 500 futures are down 4.1 percent or 86.50 points at 2,049.00.

Shares are tumbling across Asia, with the Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo down 4.4 percent at 16,410.55. India’s Sensex has sunk 5.4 percent to 26,164.36.

The dollar has plunged against the yen, dropping to 101.99 yen from 105.46 yen earlier in the session.

The Mexican peso, seen as a proxy for Trump’s chances of winning, has fallen 10.7 percent to 20.32 pesos to the dollar.

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2:30 a.m. – Share benchmarks are tumbling across Asia after Donald Trump gained the lead in electoral votes, with 137 to Hillary Clinton’s 104 as of 9:30 p.m. EST (0230 GMT). Markets had opened solidly higher but quickly shed those gains, reflecting investor concern over what a Trump presidency might mean for the economy and trade.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index dropped 2.4 percent to 16,777.85 as the U.S. dollar sank against the Japanese yen, a trend that would be unfavorable to exporters. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng plunged 1.7 percent to 22,514.70.

South Korea’s Kospi index fell 1.4 percent to 1,976.49 and Australia’s S&P ASX/200 lost 1.2 percent to 5,196.70.

Earlier, investors had appeared convinced that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency. Clinton is viewed as a more stable option who might maintain current policies.

In currency trading, the U.S. dollar was trading at 102.60 yen down from a high earlier in the session of 105.46. The euro was at $1.1142, up from its previous close of $1.1020.

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1:00 a.m. – Shares are mostly higher in Tokyo and other Asian markets as U.S. polls begin to close in the culmination of a highly charged presidential race.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index added 1.3 percent to 17,401.90 as the U.S. dollar surged against the Japanese yen, a trend that would help exporters.

South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.4 percent to 2,012.41 and Australia’s S&P ASX/200 jumped 0.8 percent to 5,298.80.

Analysts said most investors appeared convinced that Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump. Clinton is viewed as a more stable option who might maintain current policies.

In currency trading, the U.S. dollar was trading at 105.29 yen up from 104.96, and the euro was at $1.1000, just below its previous close of $1.1020.

 

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